中国内地电煤(mei)采购计划单价指标（CECI）编制程序(xu)办公场(chang)所室发布新闻的(de)《CECI分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数定性分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析周报(bao)》（2025年第(di)6期）彰(zhang)显(xian)，CECI东部分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数中(zhong)发高(gao)热值煤种(zhong)现(xian)货黄金平台(tai)(tai)限价价位(wei)(wei)变更注(zhu)册(ce)大幅度下(xia)滑(hua)。曹妃甸分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数持续不断下(xia)进行。进品分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数各型号规(gui)格品煤种(zhong)现(xian)货黄金平台(tai)(tai)限价价位(wei)(wei)均有(you)不同于能力(li)下(xia)进行。CECI选购(gou)运(yun)营经纪人分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数间断性六期存在(zai)收(shou)縮(suo)之间，分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)项目分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数中(zhong)，很多分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数均存在(zai)收(shou)縮(suo)之间，市场(chang)机制和实(shi)际需求分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数同比同比提高(gao)，库(ku)存盘点、价位(wei)(wei)和水运(yun)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数同比同比下(xia)滑(hua)。

一、市场情况综述

然(ran)(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)锅(guo)炉(lu)锅(guo)炉(lu)火(huo)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)出产(chan)各方(fang)面，渐渐端午节假日后各工业(ye)随(sui)后开(kai)(kai)产(chan)开(kai)(kai)产(chan)，发充电(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)、耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)和(he)入(ru)厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)不断迅速上涨，但灰(hui)复运行速度(du)略(lve)缓于去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)季老历同(tong)(tong)(tong)季。集中(zhong)供水量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)常(chang)见增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)火(huo)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)库存(cun)商品去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)不断下(xia)跌，但仍处(chu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)季低(di)位。按照进(jin)来电(dian)(dian)联染料计算(suan)数(shu)据分析，这一期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)并(bing)入(ru)电(dian)(dian)业(ye)的行业(ye)染料计算(suan)的电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)集团电(dian)(dian)话然(ran)(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)锅(guo)炉(lu)锅(guo)炉(lu)火(huo)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日访(fang)问量(liang)(liang)(liang)发充电(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)流(liu)(liu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)22.6%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)31.8%。日访(fang)问量(liang)(liang)(liang)集中(zhong)供水量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.7%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)47.5%。日访(fang)问量(liang)(liang)(liang)电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)耗(hao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)18.1%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)27.6%。进(jin)来，海路运输(shu)配送火(huo)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日访(fang)问量(liang)(liang)(liang)耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)54.9%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)68.0%；日访(fang)问量(liang)(liang)(liang)入(ru)厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)5.1%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)7.2%。然(ran)(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)锅(guo)炉(lu)锅(guo)炉(lu)火(huo)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)存(cun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)10878万(wan)吨(dun)，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)倍增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)75万(wan)吨(dun)。

图1  燃煤电厂周均发电量走势图

图2  燃煤电厂电煤库存走势图

我国焦(jiao)炭主产(chan)(chan)区(qu)多方面，大这部分(fen)国企(qi)煤(mei)矿(kuang)业(ye)修(xiu)复(fu)很正常(chang)出(chu)产(chan)(chan)和经销(xiao)商(shang)，大多民营(ying)化煤(mei)企(qi)即将修(xiu)复(fu)至春春节(jie)前(qian)夕生产(chan)(chan)量(liang)的情(qing)形，焦(jiao)炭全(quan)局(ju)出(chu)售持续时间回(hui)涨。近关键时期电力网、热、冶金(jin)行业(ye)等制造(zao)业(ye)企(qi)业(ye)销(xiao)量(liang)普遍十分(fen)充(chong)足，洗煤(mei)厂、进出(chu)口选购(gou)商(shang)多持望而却步作风(feng)，多以刚需房低价来选购(gou)作为(wei)主料，坑口全(quan)局(ju)拉运普遍冷(leng)冷(leng)清清，放大大一些的集(ji)困变动购(gou)入价及其海港口单价，坑口市场上现货黄金(jin)单价一直弱(ruo)稳自动运行。

航运(yun)(yun)餐饮市场上管(guan)理方面，近斯大秦高(gao)速铁路运(yun)(yun)量已康复至平(ping)均(jun)100万吨水(shui)平(ping)面，导(dao)致现在沿海城市发(fa)电(dian)站仍以 刚性轨道(dao)拉(la)运(yun)(yun)及(ji)及(ji)耗电(dian)量身(shen)体交(jiao)(jiao)易量商品为中心，占多(duo)数(shu)主(zhu)耍航运(yun)(yun)调(diao)成量少于放入量，航运(yun)(yun)交(jiao)(jiao)易量商品不(bu)间断(duan)累(lei)计，纺织(zhi)品贸易公司销售及(ji)时(shi)，报价表发(fa)生(sheng)小量接触不(bu)良(liang)，但航运(yun)(yun)餐饮市场上煤拍卖股票成交(jiao)(jiao)价量偏少，期(qi)货拍卖成交(jiao)(jiao)价价格弱(ruo)稳正常运(yun)(yun)作。

终(zhong)合而(er)言，随各加工业复(fu)(fu)厂(chang)(chang)复(fu)(fu)厂(chang)(chang)稳中(zhong)有进(jin)推广，燃气水电厂(chang)(chang)发电量(liang)(liang)显示(shi)、耗煤量(liang)(liang)和入厂(chang)(chang)煤量(liang)(liang)立(li)即增涨，煤炭使用量(liang)(liang)主制造地批发商再次康复(fu)(fu)，口岸(an)调(diao)(diao)职量(liang)(liang)多于调(diao)(diao)成量(liang)(liang)，库存(cun)盘(pan)点(dian)再次积攒，坑口和口岸(an)外盘(pan)市(shi)厂(chang)(chang)的表(biao)现平(ping)平(ping)，关(guan)注压力(li)仍相对来说非常(chang)浓厚，外盘(pan)成交(jiao)额价格(ge)多少立(li)即弱稳操作(zuo)。

二、CECI指数分析

CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克和5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期分别下降2元/吨、1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间为750-760元/吨，5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格为670元/吨。从样本热值分布看，4500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、5500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为49.0％、32.7％、18.3％。

图3  CECI沿海指数综合价走势图

CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为757.5元/吨、665.3元/吨和580元/吨，电煤现货价格持续下跌，各规格品本周价格平均值比上周分别下降2.5元/吨、2.7元/吨和2元/吨。现货交易日均总数量基本持平，其中5500千卡/千克、4500千卡/千克样本数量略有减少，5000千卡/千克样本数量略有增加。

图4  CECI曹妃甸指数走势图

CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价818元/吨，较上期下降7元/吨，环比下降0.8%。现货价格中，各规格品热值进口煤现货价格均有不同幅度下降，其中太仓港（灵便型）5500千卡/千克价格环比下降14元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）3800千卡/千克价格环比下降6元/吨。印尼斋月即将来临，加之低热值规格品采购需求增加，外矿报价稍显坚挺。但国内电煤现货市场阴跌走弱，沿海电煤供需格局整体宽松，以低价采购为主，进口贸易商竞价压力较大，实际成交量一般，招投标价格延续弱稳运行。

表1  CECI进口指数

CECI采购经理人指数连续6期处于收缩区间。其中，供给分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤供给量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。需求分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤需求量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。库存分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤库存量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。价格分指数连续4期处于收缩区间，表明电格立(li)即(ji)下(xia)调，上(shang)涨率为之加大。水运(yun)分指标间断性10期(qi)居(ju)于收缩毛(mao)孔区(qu)段，显(xian)示(shi)电煤水运(yun)多少(shao)钱(qian)立(li)即(ji)下(xia)调，上(shang)涨率为之加大。

表2  CECI采购经理人指数

三、相关信息和建议

跟据国内快(kuai)运(yun)托运(yun)保(bao)通保(bao)畅岗位领军党小组会议室室监控统(tong)计报表参数，6月3日(ri)-6月9日(ri)，湖(hu)北(bei)省快(kuai)运(yun)公司快(kuai)运(yun)托运(yun)进行(xing)运(yun)作，里面：地方(fang)轨道连续(xu)运(yun)送国际货物6989亿立方(fang)米，同(tong)比的增加(jia)(jia)的增加(jia)(jia)7.49%；湖(hu)北(bei)省极速工路连续(xu)卡车出(chu)入2596.7万辆，同(tong)比的增加(jia)(jia)的增加(jia)(jia)176.94%。

会(hui)按照中(zhong)电(dian)(dian)联电(dian)(dian)力网产业(ye)能源分(fen)析，到(dao)10月14日，融入(ru) 分(fen)析的发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)能集(ji)困原(yuan)(yuan)煤发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)本(ben)连续发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)能量环(huan)比增长(zhang)越(yue)(yue)来越(yue)(yue)低2.3%，去年连续发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)能量环(huan)比增长(zhang)越(yue)(yue)来越(yue)(yue)低13.9%。原(yuan)(yuan)煤发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)耗煤量本(ben)连续环(huan)比增长(zhang)越(yue)(yue)来越(yue)(yue)低1%，去年连续环(huan)比增长(zhang)越(yue)(yue)来越(yue)(yue)低11%。原(yuan)(yuan)煤发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)原(yuan)(yuan)煤交易(yi)量超过2019例数(shu)71万(wan)吨，交易(yi)量也可以时间较(jiao)去年例数(shu)增加4.7天。

截至目前，环渤海港口库存总量超2800万吨，周环比增加200万吨，远高于去年同期水平。后期来看，产地生产继续恢复，但考虑到3月上旬重要会议召开，预计2月底3月初产地煤矿安检力度将持续较大，煤矿整体产能利用率或难以恢复至节前水平。北方港口调入方面，矿方向港口的发运将继续恢复，北港调入量将增加，但考虑到发运倒挂、淡季预期等因素，贸易商向港口发运的煤炭数量增长空间或受限。随着下游企业陆续复工复产，非电采购增加，后期北港调出量也将增加，预计短期内北港库存将高位小幅减少。综合判断，短期动力煤市场将延续偏弱格局。建议电力企业及时关注跟踪相关政策走向、国内外市场环境变化和进口煤相关政策等，分析预测用电负荷增长及电煤需求，科学合理制定后续采购计划及库存策略。