国家电煤企业采(cai)购(gou)报价指(zhi)数值（CECI）核编会议室室上传的(de)(de)《CECI系(xi)数(shu)解(jie)析周报》（2025年第(di)31期(qi)）体现(xian)，CECI近(jin)海系(xi)数(shu)中(zhong)高(gao)烧(shao)不(bu)退(tui)值煤(mei)种(zhong)现(xian)货交易平台交易额价(jia)额小量(liang)度(du)减低。曹妃甸系(xi)数(shu)小量(liang)度(du)下(xia)滑(hua)。进囗的(de)(de)系(xi)数(shu)高(gao)烧(shao)不(bu)退(tui)值煤(mei)种(zhong)现(xian)货交易平台交易额价(jia)再(zai)下(xia)滑(hua)。CECI采购管理(li)管理(li)师人系(xi)数(shu)陆续五一(yi)期(qi)处(chu)在拉伸范(fan)(fan)围，分(fen)(fen)项工程系(xi)数(shu)中(zhong)，除水运分(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)处(chu)在扩充范(fan)(fan)围外，另(ling)一(yi)个分(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)均(jun)处(chu)在拉伸范(fan)(fan)围，除存储(chu)分(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)环(huan)(huan)比增(zeng)长增(zeng)长率(lv)飙升(sheng)外，另(ling)一(yi)个分(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)均(jun)环(huan)(huan)比增(zeng)长增(zeng)长率(lv)减低。
一、市场情况综述
散(san)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)火(huo)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)生产方式角度，全国性大行(xing)政区(qu)域(yu)内(nei)(nei)内(nei)(nei)地环(huan)境气(qi)温继(ji)读回升，华中(zhong)等行(xing)政区(qu)域(yu)内(nei)(nei)内(nei)(nei)村民聚焦暖气(qi)已经开(kai)始，往(wang)(wang)往(wang)(wang)散(san)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)火(huo)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)发(fa)(fa)充(chong)电(dian)(dian)、集中(zhong)集中(zhong)供(gong)热(re)量、电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)日耗和入(ru)(ru)厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)均持续时间限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)。火(huo)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)存(cun)量除东北(bei)黑龙江行(xing)政区(qu)域(yu)内(nei)(nei)内(nei)(nei)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)外，华中(zhong)、华北(bei)、南方地区(qu)等行(xing)政区(qu)域(yu)内(nei)(nei)内(nei)(nei)火(huo)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)均各种阶段升高(gao)(gao)。可根据(ju)中(zhong)电(dian)(dian)联(lian)清洁(jie)清洁(jie)燃料统计显(xian)示(shi)表(biao)格(ge)数(shu)据(ju)统计显(xian)示(shi)，这期并入(ru)(ru)电(dian)(dian)力公(gong)司的行(xing)业(ye)清洁(jie)清洁(jie)燃料统计显(xian)示(shi)表(biao)格(ge)的发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)集团电(dian)(dian)话(hua)散(san)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)火(huo)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)日访(fang)问(wen)量发(fa)(fa)充(chong)电(dian)(dian)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)5.8%，月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)4.1%。日访(fang)问(wen)量集中(zhong)集中(zhong)供(gong)热(re)量月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)16.6%，月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)20.3%。日访(fang)问(wen)量电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)耗量限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)6.2%，月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)3.2%。里面，海路运(yun)输管理火(huo)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)日访(fang)问(wen)量耗煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)6.3%，月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)9.3%；日访(fang)问(wen)量入(ru)(ru)厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)3.3%，月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)限(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)9.6%。散(san)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)火(huo)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)存(cun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)9952万(wan)吨，月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)环(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)430万(wan)吨。
我们(men)国家煤(mei)碳能源主主产(chan)(chan)地方便，大位置露天矿(kuang)山长期(qi)提(ti)高常规生(sheng)产(chan)(chan)销售，国有(you)制(zhi)(zhi)制(zhi)(zhi)露天矿(kuang)山发运以保供及里(li)面的(de)供货(huo)(huo)为中心(xin)，个别差异私(si)营露天矿(kuang)山被(bei)动限(xian)产(chan)(chan)，局部煤(mei)碳能源供货(huo)(huo)幅度震荡。近来(lai)煤(mei)电企业销量(liang)仍(reng)超出头(tou)年(nian)整定值，非(fei)电的(de)行业仅(jin)长期(qi)提(ti)高一点需求(qiu)集中采购(gou)，站口(kou)和(he)(he)国有(you)制(zhi)(zhi)制(zhi)(zhi)企业购(gou)入售价重新下跌(die)，进出口(kou)采购(gou)商和(he)(he)专(zhuan)业市场的(de)参(can)与(yu)进来(lai)者徘徊积极情绪(xu)较(jiao)浓，专(zhuan)业市场的(de)市场交易气(qi)息清冷(leng)，期(qi)货(huo)(huo)售价保持幅度减少。
海码头市场(chang)中的(de)地方，受轨道快递邮费划算、环境温度下降、汽(qi)轮机需要(yao)维护检修等众多原因(yin)损害，调整量整体化偏低于放入量，海码头库存量箱顶振荡运动。在现货黄金市场(chang)中的(de)定(ding)价(jia)(jia)逐步(bu)下跌季度长协价(jia)(jia)的(de)前提(ti)下，越(yue)多越(yue)易货采购(gou)商对股票走势看中(zhong)空态不强，市场价(jia)(jia)(jia)持(chi)续性大幅度(du)调低，少部分末(mo)端行业询货(huo)正(zheng)正(zheng)负提升(sheng)自(zi)己，但仍以优惠(hui)价(jia)(jia)(jia)招标采购来源于，预期卖出量通常情况下，外盘卖出价(jia)(jia)(jia)大幅度(du)调整。
终合你看(kan)，北边集体采暖季主要(yao)收尾，电煤(mei)(mei)所需转淡，燃气水泥厂电煤(mei)(mei)日耗提高持(chi)续向下。电煤(mei)(mei)供求关(guan)系相对(dui)来说比较宽松，中河流下游库(ku)存盘点各种压力大(da)，卖场煤(mei)(mei)事实上总供应量基本上，坑口(kou)和海港卖场煤(mei)(mei)价仍(reng)始(shi)终维持(chi)被动电脑运行。
二、CECI指数分析
CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期分别下降4元/吨、1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间分别为682-687元/吨、601-604元/吨，且从成交时间看，多分布在本周前半段。从样本热值分布看，4500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、5500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为30.7％、48.3％、21.1％。
图3 CECI沿海指数综合价走势图
CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为686.4元/吨、597.6元/吨和519.8元/吨，电煤现货价格小幅下行，各规格品本周价格平均值比上周分别下降6.6元/吨、5.6元/吨和4.4元/吨。现货交易平均数量有所减少，其中5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克数量略有减少，4500千卡/千克样本数量基本持平。
图4 CECI曹妃甸指数走势图
CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价860元/吨，较上期持平。现货价格中，各规格品热值进口煤现货价格涨跌不一，其中太仓港（灵便型）3200千卡/千克价格环比上涨6元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）4600千卡/千克价格环比下降8元/吨。印尼HBA新政逐渐趋于稳定，但受斋月及雨季的影响，外矿对低热值煤种报价多数保持坚挺。国内沿海电厂继续释放远期5月份交货的招标采购，尤其华南地区电厂较集中的电力集团连续批量发布采购低热值印尼煤招标，整体投标价较上期小幅下降。近期进口煤市场对澳煤、俄罗斯煤询货略有增加，但仍以低价采购为主，进口高热值煤价格缺乏有力支撑，现货价格继续偏弱运行。
表1 CECI进口指数
CECI采购经理人指数连续11期处于收缩区间。其中，供给分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤供给量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。需求分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤需求量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。库存分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤库存量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。价格分指数连续9期处于收缩区间，表明电煤价格继续下降，降幅有所扩大。航运分指数连续3期处于扩张区间，表明电煤航运价格继续增加，增幅有所收窄。
表2 CECI采购经理人指数
三、相关信息和建议
依照住建部(bu)国(guo)(guo)(guo)际(ji)物(wu)流运输物(wu)流保通保畅(chang)操作(zuo)领导干(gan)部(bu)党小组商务(wu)职场(chang)监测系统数据(ju)源汇总数据(ju)源，7月(yue)(yue)10日-7月(yue)(yue)16日，在(zai)国(guo)(guo)(guo)内(nei)各(ge)省国(guo)(guo)(guo)际(ji)物(wu)流公司国(guo)(guo)(guo)际(ji)物(wu)流运输物(wu)流制度(du)化运转，至少：中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)(guo)铁路FBA国(guo)(guo)(guo)际(ji)货(huo)物(wu)累加(jia)运输物(wu)流国(guo)(guo)(guo)际(ji)货(huo)物(wu)7833.2亿吨，同比(bi)提升率(lv)提升1.98%；在(zai)国(guo)(guo)(guo)内(nei)各(ge)省高(gao)速的农(nong)村公路累加(jia)大(da)货(huo)车出入5247.2万(wan)辆，同比(bi)提升率(lv)提升3.45%。
跟据国内统计汇总局数据文件(jian)，2025年(nian)1-二(er)月份，云(yun)南(nan)省精(jing)煤(mei)生产产量7653叁万(wan)吨，环比生长(zhang)(zhang)率生长(zhang)(zhang)7.7%，增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)幅度比前(qian)年(nian)1二(er)月份缩(suo)短3.5-7个点(dian)；规上制造业发电(dian)池电(dian)量1492一亿Kw时，环比生长(zhang)(zhang)率越(yue)(yue)来越(yue)(yue)低(di)1.3%。
依(yi)据国(guo)再生能(neng)源局数(shu)据表格，2025年1-二月(yue)份，全社(she)会各界电费(fei)量(liang)加权(quan)平(ping)均(jun)15564亿kw时(shi)，去年同期发展(zhan)1.3%。从分(fen)制(zhi)造业电费(fei)看，首要、二、三制(zhi)造业和(he)(he)城乡(xiang)市民(min)市民(min)家庭生活电费(fei)量(liang)主要去年同期发展(zhan)8.2%、0.9%、3.6%和(he)(he)0.1%。
通过中电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)联电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)业(ye)相(xiang)关行业(ye)生物燃料统(tong)计(ji)(ji)(ji)汇(hui)总(zong)表，已于(yu)1月(yue)21日(ri)(ri)，纳(na)为统(tong)计(ji)(ji)(ji)汇(hui)总(zong)表的(de)来(lai)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)国际公司然(ran)煤(mei)(mei)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站上(shang)个月(yue)总(zong)计(ji)(ji)(ji)来(lai)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池容(rong)量(liang)环(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)率增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)减低4%，当年度总(zong)计(ji)(ji)(ji)来(lai)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池容(rong)量(liang)环(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)率增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)减低8%。然(ran)煤(mei)(mei)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站耗煤(mei)(mei)量(liang)上(shang)个月(yue)总(zong)计(ji)(ji)(ji)环(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)率增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)减低4.1%，当年度总(zong)计(ji)(ji)(ji)环(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)率增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)减低7%。然(ran)煤(mei)(mei)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站新疆煤(mei)(mei)炭货源(yuan)大(da)于(yu)20年同(tong)比(bi)450万(wan)吨，货源(yuan)可(ke)以用在日(ri)(ri)子较本年同(tong)比(bi)变高1.8天。
近期，全国多地陆续停止供暖，发电、供暖用煤进入淡季，转入检修的电厂机组开始增多，大部分沿海电厂机组负荷较低。非电企业复工及基建加快，非电耗煤量有所提升，但在长协煤供应及高库存支撑下，整体市场采购需求释放仍显不足。北方港调出量与调入量基本持平，港口去库速度依旧缓慢，其中秦皇岛港库存长时间保持在700万吨以上的高位水平，疏港压力较大。在坑口和港口库存双双高企压力之下，煤矿存在被动减产可能，同时，进口低卡煤价格倒挂也可能对内贸形成一定支撑。综合判断，短期动力煤市场价格将缓慢下跌继续探底。建议电力企业关注后期港口去库进度和水泥等非电煤需求释放情况，维持合理库存。
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